Maggie Visser 3/12/23 Maggie Visser 3/12/23

Maggie's Market Minute: Higher rates and higher prices?

Following the sharp drop in market activity in the latter half of 2022, which was the slowest in 10-20 years and hit a low of 45-50% below the previous year's activity, there was a notable recovery in market activity at the start of the year. This resurgence was driven by a decrease in interest rates, and it felt like the frenzy of the pandemic era all over again, with a significant surge in open house traffic, offers made, overbidding, and absorption rates.

February saw an increase in rates and fewer new listings

Due to an underwhelming inflation report, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in February, leading to instability in the financial markets and an increase in mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, since the spring of 2022, there has been a significant reduction in the number of new properties being listed on the market. This trend is observed nationwide, with new listings hitting an 18-year low. The primary reason for this is that 85% of mortgage holders have locked in rates of 5% or lower, with 28% having rates below 3%. As a result, homeowners with low mortgage rates are less inclined to sell, contributing to a shortage of inventory.

Increased rates = increased home prices?

Although mortgage rates have gone up, and there has been some instability in the stock market, there is still a significant demand for housing. Open houses continue to attract large numbers of buyers, and offer dates are being set with multiple offers being made. Additionally, the percentage of listings accepting offers has rebounded, indicating that the demand for housing remains high.
If mortgage rates continue to go up, and fewer homeowners want to sell, it could lead to:
Low Inventory + Strong Buyer Demand = Home Price Appreciation

The next inflation report is due next week and the Fed has indicated that they’ll continue to raise rates to combat inflation. Only time will tell how interest rates will impact the housing market in future months. Stay tuned!

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Cheers,
Maggie

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.